ooops! I Did It Again

Truth will sooner come out of error than from confusion. 
Francis Bacon



As decided, I traded ekc in the first hour. I might be the first person who sold ekc shares and  though hourly charts clearly showed that it was the right time to go short still its the perfect example how sentiments changes technicals and fundamentals. See what happened to EKC this morning.
So no hesitation to say that the trade failed.

Check out the movement in first hour and both indicator clearly showes the bullish start of the stock.

Quick Bucks

Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.
Warren Buffett

Though the index afftects the stocks in broader term but as far as shorter swings are concerned, no matter where market moves, every stock has its own movement.  Like where Nifty is expected to have a gap-up opening tomorrow, EKC seems not to get free from beers' clutches. Have a look

well, I recommend to short EKC at opening at current level that could be covered at 95. So Rs. 5 in an hour an hour is not a bad deal. Its 5% man. Whewwwwwwwwwwww!

Is It The Bottomline

"A man who is at the top is a man who has the habit of getting to the bottom."

Joseph E. Rogers

Long live Beers, chants are on as procession of bad news causing the bourses' descent.Banking had been a stong sector since recession which led many short term rallies and a downward correction wasnt possible without a week banking. Thanks to housing scam, rather media which hyped the whole story. Panic is apparant and rampant selling is seen across all sectors.

Nify made intraday low of 5728 which is an important 61.8 fibo level. So will it take a halt or reversal.No, not yet. why? Hey, have a look at stoch and MACD, the difference between the two lines are still widening. So no respite for Nifty. Lets expect it to touch 76.4 level. Beears, its party time.

Bank Tumbles

I may be out tomorrow. Nifty is having a strong support at 5800 and its likely that it gonna hover between 5800 and 6000 for couple of days. We saw panic due to korean aggression followed by news of LIC housing finance. Banks which has been strong in last couple of months now surrendered to the panic wave.

On Thursday morning we can expect a futher fall. I would suggest to go short in Allahabad bank as soon as the market opens.

You may go short in Allahabad bank @ 250-246 level and can expect 240-235. Have a great time bear.

CEE YA

Destiny of Nifty

Whole day spent answering people where Nifty is heading. Though the good news at European front has given some respite to the falling bourse still it isnt strong enough to sustain the selling pressure that is apparent from this chart.

See the Nifty is about to revers at the brink of larger EMA where as both lines on MACD are too lower than the zero line make it bullish. Moreover stoch is about to make a bearish crossover that too on the upper end.

Nor convinced. Lets have another look.

MACD lines seems reluctant to cross above zero line and stoch has already started it journey back from the upper end. So shouldnt we expect Nifty below 5950. We should.

Bank Stumbles

Banking stocks have come under some selling pressure on concerns of exposure to micro-finance institutions (MFIs). You can measure the fear on the charts. See the Bank nifty .

Well, if you ask where is the bottom, I will say that we still havnt seen the begining of downfall of this mighty index. See, it has merely touched the middle moving average line. Though bearish crossover occured in MACD but it is held on way up above zero line and the difference between the two lines of stoch seems shying to widen. So, I will confirm the reversal when the first moving crossover occur. Wait for few more days. You wont be disappointed.

SUGAR SOURS

See the similarity between these two sugar players.

BAJAJ HIND

BALRAMPUR CHINI

NIFTY RETREATS

After a long lasting rally ,where Nifty made a high of 6349, a reversal was expected. The gradual descent commenced on 5/11 and Nifty is sill finding its support. It on the verge of hitting 50% retracement at 5845 but since the difference between both lines on sotch are going wider I can assume Nifty is gonna touch 61% level that happens at 5725.

HAPPY DIWALI

MAY THE LIGHT OF HAPPINESS LIGHT UP YOUR LIFE. MAY THIS DIWALI BE THE MOST SPARKLING AND LIGHTENING. THE SIGHTS AND SOUNDS FILLING UP YOUR HEART WITH JOY AND HAPPINESS.

WISHING YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY DIWALI.

Silver Lining

Silver has shown an unprecedented rally in past few week. The prices sored more than Rs. 1000 in last two trading session. Unprecedented move upside or downside always follwed by unexpected reversal. And that what goin to happen with silver prices. In festive season people are going bullish on silver. Now the question arises when and how silver is gonna correct. Lets have a look on EOD chart and you may perceive the imminent doom.

Its negative divergence on RSI. Notice the difference in volume on both peaks. Hope you might have got an idea what gonna happen with silver.

BEARS SMILING

After a month long bully rally market has eventually given a respite to bears. And its quite evident from the charts. Nifty EOD and weekly charts has shown similar signal i.e. dark cloud cover and we can percieve it a little correction



NIFTY  EOD CHART

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART

During this bull rally 5 day EMA has been a good support in EOD chart  whereas in weekly chart 13 and 34 day EMA has been support off and on.

BACK TO HOME

Dissension among administrative stratum cost me a month and my clients suffered as well. I had to be in touch with them through SMS. Now with new system in force with new strength I assure you all of uninterrupted supply of imformation and persistent communication. I  APPLOGISE you people for the inconvenience you had because of ruptured schdule and at the same time I wont hesitate to evince the gratitude as you people has shown a great degree of patience and insurmountable faith in me.

LETS BEGIN THE NEW JOURNEY

LIVE CALLS: 15TH SEPTEMBER

9:06
Buy Sterlit Spt future @ 170

9:11
Since Sterlite has breached its 50 day EMA. It can be bought and hold for few days. Target 180

9:21
Short NIIT  @ CMP( 67.70)

9:24
Short NoidaToll Spt future @ 36.50
Target 35.80

9:31
Buy Rpower @ 159
Target 161

9:44
Short ZEEL spt future @ 294.10

9:52
Short MoserBaer spt future @ 66.20
Target 65.70

10.51
Target hit in MoserBaer

12.34
Short Tata power spt future @ 1268
Target 1265

Amtek Auto in Reverse Gear

Amtek Auto has breached its 50 day EMA with huge volume. Trader can do intraday short with target of 172.

LIVE CALLS: 14TH SEPTEMBER

9:45
Buy ONGC sept future @ 1383
Target 1388

9:53
ONGC target hit

10:24
Short ABAN spt future @ 828-27
Target 824

10:23
Target hit in ABAN


10:27
Short ACC spt future @ CMP 969
Target 965

10:34
Target hit in ACC

10:40
Short Sun Tv Spt future @ CMP (506.90)
Target 500


10:43
Short SCI spt future @ 163.70
Target 163

10:47
Short Relmedia spt future @ 210
Target 209.10

10:51
Short Petronet Spt future @ 110
Target 109

11:56
Buy JPassociat Spt future @ 134.40
Target 125

12:54
Buy HCL Tech Spt future @ CMP(414.40)
Target 415.50

12:56
Target hit in JP Associat

1:40
Short  Ambuja Cement Spt future @ 134.30
Target 133.50


2:42
Cover position in Ambuja Cement at 135

Live Calls: 9th September

9.36
Short KFA spt future @  69 , SL- 69.50, Target: 68

10:09
Short Maruti spt future @ CMP Target 1310

10:23
Short MTNL spt future @ CMP Target 65

11:34
Book profit in MTNL spt future at 65.50

11:36
Buy DLF spt future @ 320 , SL:319, Target : 323

12:19
TARGET HIT IN KFA spt future
TARGET HIT IN MTNL spt future

Mudra's Maneuver

Mudra Lifestyle owned by Agrawal family is a prominent player in textile industry.

Stock has breached 50 day EMS with huge volume. We can expect a short uptrend. I will recommend to go long at CMP. On weekly chart, stcok shows uptrend and we can make a target of 49.

Live Calls

11:10
Buy Nifty @ 5485  SL: 5477 Target: 5610
Short LICHSGFIN @ 1185 SL: 1190 Target: 1172


11:44
Short LT sept future @ 1864 ,SL: 1870 , Target : 1855


12:13
Book profit in Nifty @ 4603

12:18
Short Nifty @ 5600 SL 5610 Target 5585


14:06
Target hit in Nifty,LT and LICHSGFIN short call.

Appraisal!!!!!

Hey guys! check out my previous analysis and recommendations.

1. Bombay Dyieng: you can book partial profit if u found urslf a bit impatient.
2. Wipro: stock made intraday high of 409.55 and closed at 407. Dont worry the bull phase is just started.
3. Syndicate Bank: T1 already hit whereas T2 was missed by minuscule gap. Stock made intraday high of  
    117.40 on 6th sept.

Southern Bank is Northbound

Andhra Bank is in short term uptrend and maitaining its level well above 50 EMA for past couple of weeks.

Besides, on MACD the trigger line is still well above zero line during bear phase and seems the crossover gonna take place above zero line as well. so it a good buy on dip. GO LONG.

For Upcoming Days

1. Bombay Dyeing: buy above 600. Target : 666, stoploss: 576
2 Wipro : Buy at current level: Target=411
3. Syndicate Bank : buy above 110 T1=113.50 , T2=117.50 Stoploss: 108

GIC'S Perfect Move

As discussed in last post GIC housing finance has shown us a perfect retracment. I expected 38.2% retracement from intraday high152.50 and that is 137.65 , instead it surpassed even 50% and went down 61.8% that is  128.30.

Still it is bullish in weekly chart and since April it is maintaing its position above 9 week EMA. BULLISH, isnt it?

GIC Providing Shelter to Bulls

GIC Housing finance has had a great bullish week and the rally was accompanied with upsurge in volume.

Stock made high on closing basis on 13 Aug whereas on 16th Aug it made intraday high. But on both instance the volume was lower than preceeding week when price was lesser than these two days. The occurance of high with lower volume is a precuser of impending fall and thats what happened 16th onwards.

A slight correction was expected and since MACD crossover has happened above the zero line its still bullish  it may find a support at 137-138 level where new position can be made.

I suggest GIC housing finance a bullish counter that can be bought on dips.

Gap Filling

Its been more than a week. I apologise to all of you for being out for the whole week. Its really unprofessional. Yea, Am sorry guys.

So scenerio is changed since we departed. The declension of  Reliance, Cairn-Vedanta nupital knot, Punj lloyd poor show and ascent of SBI left the Index bewildered. Guys give me couple of hours to compile some new stuff for you.

GE SHIP Lost the Anchor

GE Ship has showed strength in the last 3 trading sessions. It faced a strong resistence at 302-308 level and that level has been breached with comparitively higher volume suggest an upsurge. Besides the stock is in long term up trend so I would suggest to buy GE Ship on dips. Technicaly its strong trend since its making higher lows.

Sugar Get Sweeter

Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hindustan and Renuka Sugar are some of the key sugar player coming out of bearish phase after a long time. There might be some fundamental reasons agrravating and initiating a rally (news of deregulation of Sugar Sector) but technically charts shows a short term rally of these 3 sugar stocks.

Bajaj Hind has breached 20 SMA after a long time. GOOD. Expecting a mimimal 38.2% retracement we can really expect a good short term rally.

Day ended with lackluster movements of Nifty. Though it fell abruptly in the last hour and my short traded yielded 20 points.

Go Short On 29th

Take these stocks for short selling on Thursday.

1.Punj Lloyd
2.Prakash Industries
3.RCF
4.RIIL
5.Rolta
6.Tech Mahindra.

HAPPY TRADING

MIDCAPS

Sandy, I will reiterate my point that what is good for you might not be for me coz we have different risk appetite and preferences. So first make it clear what exactly you want from those midcaps. Whats your time horizon? Your risk appetite and backup? If you wanna make value investment then I will suggest you to pick banks. Buy Allahabad bank, Vijaya Bank on dips. However, for intraday you can take educomp? But you ought to be specific about you objective and only after that I could recommend any midcaps for you.

All is well with ALLAHABAD BANK

Stock seems extremly bullish. Volume is in sync with price movement. MACD is above zero. Besides there other indicator that suggest it a good buy.

Two consecutive Doji formed on 14th and 15th July at a resistence area but that indecision is over come with a following green candle that too with high volume. Its a good buy for upcoming week.

DLF Breakout

DLF has crossed it 50 day EMA with significant volume. It had a strog resistence at 292 and it was tested throught a week (21st -28th June). On candlestick chart it has formed a big green candle (extremely bullish) today. So we can expect an short terma upward movement with target of 310.

GO SHORT

People are bit coufused as Nifty is hovering in a critical range. Short or long. For many Nifty is all set to make new high as long as it doesnt breach 5200 support. In fact, 5200 is a very strog support. Check it out.

\

Besides, the faster moving average is on the verger of crossing down the slower one and did notice the bearish formation. NO. How can you see any formation in line chart. Check it out again.

Its Bearish Harami, Nifty is on the verge of correction. And we can expect 5000 level once again. So go short

Banking on Banks

Bank of India is providing a good trading opportunity.

Two inverted hammer occured at 350 level forming a strong support wehreas doji appeared thrice in 385-393 range making it a strong resistence. Banks are still strong.




Its not the end. Here comes another. Now its BOB aka Bank of Baroda. Lots of shaven bottom. Amazing.

and surprisngly its movement is closely aligned with 20SMA. Strong uptrend. Notice MACD and Stoch.

Dont you think its a good buy. Go get it man.

Wipro wiped twice

Stock is falling since 18/03/2010 and volatility escalated with fall. Inspite of that people hasnt give it up. That is apparant from intact volume range.

Stock seeing strong support at 380 and this support is tested twice. The fall halted with dragonfly Doji. Obvious sign of reversal but it ddnt last long and two thirst of uptrend stopped at important level of 38.2 and 61.8. Yea, Fibonacchi works.

Stock is about to test the support third time and you can go short. Take profit of 10.
(This recommendation is solely for future)

Pick of the day

Two futures from entirely different sectors can fetch good fortune tomorrow. Go long on Ranbaxy June and short on Rolta June future.

(charts are not uploaded due to some technical errors)

Still you can take position as well. Rabaxy is a good buy at current level. Keep it for a week. You can reap Rs 20. So the target is 480

Short on Rolta at 165. Target 160

Happy trading.

(u will see the charts tomorrow)

Positive Breakout

ABIRLANUVO has seen a positive breakout (breaching 50 EMA) with a huge volume.

787 was a critical level as it served as support and resistence twice. This level was proved a big support on 24/02/2010 and second time on 19/04/2010. Once this level was breached on 05/05/2010 it was testes twice in second week of May and on 14/06/2010.

The recent fall started on 12/04/2010 and eneded on 07/06/2010 and current breakout stands at the 38%

But two factors that makes it good bet are huge volume and MACD  zero line cross over. So if price sustains this level then we can expect at least 50 % retracement (840)

**So I recommend ABIRLANUVO  at current level for very short term.**

Missed Positive Divergence in Ashok Leyland

Amidst chaos in Nifty we litrely missed a wonderful opportunity in Ashok Leyland June future.

Target HIT

As I wrote about Cipla in the last post on 2nd June, weekly target of Rs10 has been achieved in four days. Now we are eagerly waiting for the short-term target of Rs.40.

Check out the entry and exit level in above picture. I strongly suggested to buy Cipla June future @ 325 level. Today on 10th June Cipla June future closed at 336.65 with an intraday high of 337.35, and has already given Rs 10 profit


Now lets calculate the profit of the trade.
Lot size - 1250
Buy   -     325
Sell    -     335
Profit -     10

Total Profit = 1250*10 = 12500

Wasnt that good trade. Patience of 8 days reaped great profit.

GO-LONG

Current fiscal will be a tremendous year for Indian biotech industry. Global recovery has stimulated Indian bitotech industry in 2009-10 and it is apparent from 52% growth in revenue. Among them Cipla can be a good buy both on fundamental and technical front.

Cipla is a prominent Indian pharma company for manufacturing low cost anti-AIDS drugs for HIV patients in developing countries.

Resently Cipla has formed a wholly owned subsidiary 'Cipla Singapore' in Singapore which will aid logistic and distribution of compnay's export business.

Price Information
Open 323.00
High 327.95
Low 322.20
Last Price 325.10
Prev. Close 324.00
Close Price 324.75
Change 1.10
% Change 0.34
Total traded quantity 1282374
Turnover in Rs.Lakhs 4171.82


OI call option @ 340=8750
OI put option @300 =5000

We can expect and anticipate a profit of Rs.10 in coming days and Rs. 40 in a month. I consider Cipla a good buy.

F618

It was the great day to learn as Nifty, in technical terms, showed two classic phenomenon. After steady downfall since 11th  May, the technicals of Nifty showed reversal on 26th May.

but the good days dont last long and Nifty is not an exception. As Niftry retreats people are bit shocked and anticipating a contiuation of downtrend. Now here comes the Technical Analysis into the picture. Check this out..

Traders panicked as Nifty had a red day on 1st June. On technical front Nifty displayed a classical 61.8% retracement. A phenomena that we all read in textbook is appeared in real time.

F2

Its been almost 3 years since the birth of my blog but still I dont have any follower. Only recently I started posting frequently otherwise it took 2 years to to write my 4th post. First of all Im really confused about the content of my blog. I dont wanna make it one where one see something that other sites and blogs are already providing. I want to make it specifically technical analysis oriented. I seek suggestion from my clients and colleagues to enhance the quality of moneyshankar.

New Lessons

Its my new initiative in my business. Though I knew its good practice and sometimes it is claimed to be imperative still I never bother to take cognizance of this exercise. After market hours an introspection or analysis of trade is very important and necessary. With this practice I can ascertain the reason behind fail trades, lesson I learnt from those mistakes and the measures I should take to avoid such mistakes in future. Coz lot of money and faith is on stake.

Above is the chronology of the trades of mini nifty. And the biggest mistake happened in the very first trade. Seeing the sell signal simultaneously on MACD and Stoch at 10:47:46 I short sold mini nifty at 5185. (the level and signal are encircled).

1. Mistake no. 1 is I failed to notice that inspite of sell signal the faster EMA is above the slower that signifies bullish (and not bearish) trend.

2. Mistake no. 2 is I failed to notice that even after the sell signal , the trigger lines on both indicators were moving horizontly instead of sloping down. And both lines were above zero when they were supposed to intrude the below zero zone.

3. Mistake no. 3 may prove suicidal as though I failed to notice all these movements still I kept it on. I should have square the trade in 15-20 minutes. On the contrary I squared off after 2 hours at 13:33:32 that too with loss. And see that at 14 hours the faster EMA crossed down the faster EMA.

Now see the whole movement in different perspective. 10 and 20 EMA gives good results with 5 min charts.

It is apparent from the chart (its 5 min) the sell signal on MACD and Stoch in quick succession. So we got the confirmation too. That’s good. Furthermore these signals were followed by EMA crossover that is supported by volume. All these movement signifies the change in trend. On safer side if we go short on EMA crossover (the middle of the corresponding candle i.e. 5198)

The buy signal on stoch can be ignored since the trigger line on MACD is still moving down and entering negative zone and the gap between both EMAs still exists. We gotta buy signal on stoch and the corresponding candle makes the low. That is at 5173. so we can easily get net 19 points. Good for quick trade.

 


               

Anticipation of Reversal

Amidst Greek crisis, market remained in Bears control for the whole week. Almost every indices sagged and Sensex shaded 4.5% while Nifty 4.9%. But ,if we believe on technicals, nifty and bank nifty is all set to bounce back. So we are on the verge of witnessing yet another reversal

As clear from the picture above that on 7th May , 2010 Nifty has formed a Doji, that too after a gap down. And Doji after a downtrend is a harbinger of reversal.

And if we plot Bollinger Band on Nifty May future, it supports our claim of reversal since the Doji is not only formed on lower band but its lower half remains outside the lower band. One more thing is apparent from second picture, that is last four candles have been in touch with lower band as well. This is not a common event, it happens when a unusual event affects the price movement of an equity or index and the price movement deviates from its normal course.

Technical Analysis

I still remember when I used to be a naïve to Technical Analysis. The remembrance of some of the mistakes I committed in those days makes me laugh. How stupid I was. But that’s the way one learns if he/she doesn’t have any mentor or godfather. I too started learning by and with mistakes. In my early days I picked stocks who had seen a drastic drop in recent days. The notion behind the selection was “ the stock has already dropped a lot , now its turn to move up” .


Well, later I learnt about moving averages and still believes that moving averages are crude and simplest way of learning technical analysis.

If we firmly believes the existence of TA doctrine and want to encroach upon, moving averages gives us easy way. A beginner doesn’t know when to buy or when to sell. So moving averages, if properly handled , give enough guidance to keep him from incurring prospective losses.

Below are some pictures of NF with 50 moving average and even a naïve can understand the timing of buy/sell. It a simple beginning.